Observed versus estimated actual trend of COVID-19 case numbers in Cameroon: A data-driven modelling.

Controlling the COVID-19 outbreak remains a challenge for Cameroon, as it is for many other countries worldwide. The number of confirmed cases reported by health authorities in Cameroon is based on observational data, which is not nationally representative. The actual extent of the outbreak from the time when the first case was reported in the country to now remains unclear. This study aimed to estimate and model the actual trend in the number of COVID -19 new infections in Cameroon from March 05, 2020 to May 31, 2021 based on an observed disaggregated dataset. We used a large disaggregated dataset, and multilevel regression and poststratification model was applied prospectively for COVID-19 cases trend estimation in Cameroon from March 05, 2020 to May 31, 2021. Subsequently, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modeling was used for forecasting purposes. Based on the prospective MRP modeling findings, a total of about 7450935 (30%) of COVID-19 cases was estimated from March 05, 2020 to May 31, 2021 in Cameroon. Generally, the reported number of COVID-19 infection cases in Cameroon during this period underestimated the estimated actual number by about 94 times. The forecasting indicated a succession of two waves of the outbreak in the next two years following May 31, 2021. If no action is taken, there could be many waves of the outbreak in the future. To avoid such situations which could be a threat to global health, public health authorities should effectively monitor compliance with preventive measures in the population and implement strategies to increase vaccination coverage in the population.

Emergency food aid and household food security during COVID‐19: Evidence from a field survey in Senegal

The effectiveness of food aid in reducing household food insecurity in developing countries has been extensively examined in previous studies. This study explores this issue in the context of COVID-19, using the example of emergency food aid provided by the Senegalese government. Field survey data were collected from 4500 recipients and non-recipients, and the matching method was used to examine whether there was a significant difference between the two groups. Several dimensions of food insecurity were explored through five indicators: the food consumption score and the coping strategies index from the World Food Programme and three indicators of simple, moderate and severe food insecurity based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale of the US Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The results show that government aid has a negative and significant impact on the diversity and nutritional value of beneficiary households' diets. Nevertheless, this programme prevented the use of extreme coping strategies. Furthermore, government aid has a positive impact on food security as measured by negative experiences related to food access. Ultimately, despite low nutritional intake, the programme had a positive effect on recipients' food access compared with non-beneficiaries. Therefore, for future interventions, the government should promote local and more nutritious products to sustainably improve food security.

Health service utilisation during the COVID-19 pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa in 2020: a multicountry empirical assessment with a focus on maternal, newborn and child health services.

INTRODUCTION: There are concerns about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the continuation of essential health services in sub-Saharan Africa. Through the Countdown to 2030 for Women's, Children's and Adolescents' Health country collaborations, analysts from country and global public health institutions and ministries of health assessed the trends in selected services for maternal, newborn and child health, general service utilisation. METHODS: Monthly routine health facility data by district for the period 2017-2020 were compiled by 12 country teams and adjusted after extensive quality assessments. Mixed effects linear regressions were used to estimate the size of any change in service utilisation for each month from March to December 2020 and for the whole COVID-19 period in 2020. RESULTS: The completeness of reporting of health facilities was high in 2020 (median of 12 countries, 96% national and 91% of districts ≥90%), higher than in the preceding years and extreme outliers were few. The country median reduction in utilisation of nine health services for the whole period March-December 2020 was 3.9% (range: -8.2 to 2.4). The greatest reductions were observed for inpatient admissions (median=-17.0%) and outpatient admissions (median=-7.1%), while antenatal, delivery care and immunisation services generally had smaller reductions (median from -2% to -6%). Eastern African countries had greater reductions than those in West Africa, and rural districts were slightly more affected than urban districts. The greatest drop in services was observed for March-June 2020 for general services, when the response was strongest as measured by a stringency index. CONCLUSION: The district health facility reports provide a solid basis for trend assessment after extensive data quality assessment and adjustment. Even the modest negative impact on service utilisation observed in most countries will require major efforts, supported by the international partners, to maintain progress towards the SDG health targets by 2030.

Measuring coverage of maternal and child health services using routine health facility data: a Sierra Leone case study.

BACKGROUND: There are limited existing approaches to generate estimates from Routine Health Information Systems (RHIS) data, despite the growing interest to these data. We calculated and assessed the consistency of maternal and child health service coverage estimates from RHIS data, using census-based and health service-based denominators in Sierra Leone. METHODS: We used Sierra Leone 2016 RHIS data to calculate coverage of first antenatal care contact (ANC1), institutional delivery and diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus 3 (DPT3) immunization service provision. For each indicator, national and district level coverages were calculated using denominators derived from two census-based and three health service-based methods. We compared the coverage estimates from RHIS data to estimates from MICS 2017. We considered the agreement adequate when estimates from RHIS fell within the 95% confidence interval of the survey estimate. RESULTS: We found an overall poor consistency of the coverage estimates calculated from the census-based methods. ANC1 and institutional delivery coverage estimates from these methods were greater than 100% in about half of the fourteen districts, and only 3 of the 14 districts had estimates consistent with the survey data. Health service-based methods generated better estimates. For institutional delivery coverage, five districts met the agreement criteria using BCG service-based method. We found better agreement for DPT3 coverage estimates using DPT1 service-based method as national coverage was close to survey data, and estimates were consistent for 8 out of 14 districts. DPT3 estimates were consistent in almost half of the districts (6/14) using ANC1 service-based method. CONCLUSION: The study highlighted the challenge in determining an appropriate denominator for RHIS-based coverage estimates. Systematic and transparent data quality check and correction, as well as rigorous approaches to determining denominators are key considerations to generate accurate coverage statistics using RHIS data.